A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
